Vintage Doomsday Deck List Analysis for 2023.08.27

Where has Doomsday's win rate gone?

Saturday Challenge

Thiim - 7th Place

sixmp - 18th Place

CrazyDiamond513 - 21st Place

IamActuallyLvL1 - 23rd Place

Sunday Challenge

sixmp - 5th Place

Preliminaries

Fnoop - 3-1

Core and Differences

Main Core: 45 cards Side Core: 1 cards

Core

Core-Combo (6)
4 Doomsday
2 Thassa's Oracle

Counter (6)
1 Flusterstorm
4 Force of Will
1 Mental Misstep

Draw (9)
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Dig Through Time
1 Gitaxian Probe
1 Gush
1 Ponder
2 Preordain
1 Time Walk

L⁣ands/Mana (20)
1 Black Lotus
4 Dark Ritual
8 Fetch Lands
1 Island
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
4 Underground Sea

Tutor (4)
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
Sideboard (1)
1 Snuff Out

Thiim - 7th Place Differences

Main (15)
2 Daze
2 Duress
1 Flusterstorm
2 Preordain
2 Spell Pierce
4 Street Wraith
1 Treasure Cruise
1 Watery Grave
Sideboard (14)
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Deathmark
1 Dismember
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Karakas
1 Murktide Regent
2 Opposition Agent
1 Pithing Needle
1 Ray of Enfeeblement
1 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
2 Steel Sabotage
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

sixmp - 18th Place Differences

Main (15)
1 Dress Down
1 Duress
1 Fetch Lands
2 Flusterstorm
1 Force of Negation
2 Mishra's Bauble
1 Necropotence
2 Preordain
4 Street Wraith
Sideboard (14)
1 Hurkyl's Recall
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Mindbreak Trap
2 Murktide Regent
1 Steel Sabotage
4 Subtlety
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

CrazyDiamond513 - 21st Place Differences

Main (15)
1 Daze
1 Dress Down
1 Fetch Lands
2 Flusterstorm
1 Force of Negation
1 Necropotence
1 Portent
2 Preordain
4 Street Wraith
1 Treasure Cruise
Sideboard (14)
1 Annul
1 Dress Down
1 Duress
1 Fatal Push
1 Force of Negation
1 Mindbreak Trap
1 Snuff Out
1 Soul-Guide Lantern
2 Steel Sabotage
2 Surgical Extraction
2 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

IamActuallyLvL1 - 23rd Place Differences

Main (15)
1 Bolas's Citadel
1 Dress Down
1 Flusterstorm
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mana Crypt
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
1 Necropotence
3 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Tinker
1 Yawgmoth's Will
Sideboard (14)
1 Fatal Push
2 Force of Negation
1 Hurkyl's Recall
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Mindbreak Trap
1 Portal to Phyrexia
1 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
1 Sphinx of the Steel Wind
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
1 Virtue's Ruin

sixmp - 5th Place Differences

Main (15)
1 Dress Down
1 Duress
1 Fetch Lands
2 Flusterstorm
1 Force of Negation
2 Mishra's Bauble
1 Necropotence
2 Preordain
4 Street Wraith
Sideboard (14)
1 Hurkyl's Recall
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Mindbreak Trap
2 Murktide Regent
1 Steel Sabotage
4 Subtlety
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Fnoop - 3-1 Differences

Main (15)
1 Dress Down
1 Duress
1 Fetch Lands
1 Force of Negation
1 Narset, Parter of Veils
1 Necropotence
2 Preordain
1 Sleight of Hand
4 Street Wraith
1 Treasure Cruise
1 Watery Grave
Sideboard (14)
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Dress Down
1 Hurkyl's Recall
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Mindbreak Trap
1 Murktide Regent
4 Subtlety
1 Surgical Extraction

Total Differences

L⁣ands/Mana (11)
4 Fetch Lands
1 Lotus Petal
1 Mana Crypt
1 Mox Emerald
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Ruby
2 Watery Grave

Counters (17)
3 Daze
8 Flusterstorm
4 Force of Negation
2 Spell Pierce

Draw (47)
4 Mishra's Bauble
5 Necropotence
1 Portent
10 Preordain
3 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Sleight of Hand
20 Street Wraith
3 Treasure Cruise

Discard (5)
5 Duress

Removal (5)
5 Dress Down

Tutors (1)
1 Merchant Scroll

Other (4)
1 Bolas's Citadel
1 Narset, Parter of Veils
1 Tinker
1 Yawgmoth's Will
Anti-Graveyard (22)
1 Grafdigger's Cage
16 Leyline of the Void
1 Pithing Needle
1 Soul-Guide Lantern
3 Surgical Extraction

Anti-Artifacts (10)
4 Hurkyl's Recall
6 Steel Sabotage

Discard (1)
1 Duress

Creatures (11)
6 Murktide Regent
2 Opposition Agent
2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
1 Sphinx of the Steel Wind

Counters (9)
1 Annul
3 Force of Negation
5 Mindbreak Trap

Removal (31)
2 Chain of Vapor
1 Deathmark
1 Dismember
2 Dress Down
2 Fatal Push
1 Karakas
1 Portal to Phyrexia
1 Ray of Enfeeblement
1 Snuff Out
12 Subtlety
6 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
1 Virtue's Ruin

Main Averages Side Averages
CoreCombo 6.0 Creature 1.83
Counter 8.83 Counter 1.5
Discard 0.83 Discard 0.17
Draw 16.83 AntiArtifact 1.67
LandsMana 21.83 AntiGraveyard 3.67
Removal 0.83 Removal 6.17
Tutor 4.33
Other 0.5
Main Difference Side Difference
Draw -0.92 Anti-Artifact +0.04
Tutor +0.33 Anti-Graveyard -0.46
Counters -1.04 Counter -0.63
Discard +0.21 Discard +0.17
Lands/Mana +0.58 Lands/Mana -0.13
Removal +0.33 Removal +0.54
Other +0.50 Creature +0.46

Thoughts

Karakas is quite the interesting way to handle Lavinia and Thalia. I don't hate it, but a land drop is very precious in Doomsday. Dress Down is up. Tinker Doomsday has not quite yet taken the world by storm. Pieces of Removal are constantly increasing. Creatures do a lot and we have to answer them.
If you noticed that discoverN was not in the lists this week, it's not for a lack of them playing. They were just on UB Ring. And got top 8. The last time they dipped from Doomsday it was to play Grixis Breach. But they came back. Doomsday tends to do that.
Will anything from Wilds of Eldraine do that? I have my doubts, but time will tell.

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Best of luck to everyone playing this weekend!
Remember: Always Be Casting Doomsday.
And thanks! I love you.