Cut Down Versus Fatal Push in Vintage

Cut Down is out on Magic Online soon.
Cut Down

Instant
Destroy target creature with total power and toughness 5 or less.

My gut instinct was that it is better for Doomsday than Fatal Push. So let's look at some data.


I took a list of the most common creatures from a recent challenge. Here's how Fatal Push, with and without Revolt, and Cut Down compare.


Here's the number of creatures Fatal Push can get itself, then with Revolt, and Cut Down's numbers. Second column is creatures they cannot hit. Third column is for Cut Down only. Some creatures it can and cannot hit based on certain conditions.

Now let's do some comparisons.

Creatures Fatal Push (No Revolt) Can Kill but Cut Down Cannot

Oko's Elks

Creatures Fatal Push with Revolt Can Kill and Cut Down Cannot

Vengevine, Oko's Elks, Leovold, Emissary of Trest

Creatures Fatal Push (No Revolt) Can Kill and Cut Down Conditionally Can

Urza's Saga Constructs, Basking Rootwalla, Tarmogoyf, Patchwork Automaton, Walking Ballista, Unlicensed Hearse, Arcbound Ravager, Luminarch Aspirant

Additional Creatures Fatal Push with Revolt Can Hit and Cut Down Conditionally Can

Monastery Mentor, Laelia, the Blade Reforged

Creatures Cut Down Can Always Kill but Fatal Push (No Revolt) Cannot

Hullbreacher, Opposition Agent, Archon of Emeria, Urza, Lord High Artificer, Lurrus of the Dream-Den, Balustrade Spy, Undercity Informer, Foundry Inspector, Brazen Borrower

Creatures Cut Down Can Always Kill but Fatal Push without Revolt Cannot

None

Fatal Push with Revolt is always going to work. But how often do we trigger Revolt? Doomsday has eight or nine fetches and Black Lotus. That's not enough, especially problematic if we need that fetch to kill Opposition Agent. Cut Down gets a large number of creatures that a Revoltless Push cannot, but how many matter? I'd say Hullbreacher, Opposition Agent, and Archon of Emeria are more than enough. We want to kill them as soon as possible.
What do we miss out on? Leovold, Emissary of Trest and most Constructs. Leovold is already pretty bad to hit with Push as they will draw a card. We want to Force Leovold or win before they are able to cast him. If we are pushing Constructs we're in a bad position already.
I say it's clear that Cut Down is the obvious choice for Doomsday going forward. Other decks, it depends on how often triggering Revolt matters for you.
I'll be in the draft queues as soon as possible trying go get my hands on a playset. My notifications are also set so I can grab foils in paper as soon as possible.

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Best of luck to everyone playing this weekend!
Remember: Always Be Casting Doomsday.
And thanks! I love you.