Vintage Doomsday Deck List Analysis for 2024.01.14

Now is not a good time for Doomsday.

Saturday Challenge

discoverN – 38th Place

etoustar – 58th Place

Sunday Challenge

Tsubasa_Cat – 19th Place

Preliminaries

Core and Differences

Main Core: 58 cards Side Core: 12 cards

Core

Core-Combo (6)
4 Doomsday
2 Thassa’s Oracle

Counter (10)
1 Daze
3 Flusterstorm
1 Force of Negation
4 Force of Will
1 Mental Misstep

Discard (1)
1 Duress

Draw (16)
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Dig Through Time
1 Gitaxian Probe
1 Gush
1 Necropotence
1 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Street Wraith
1 Time Walk

L⁣ands/Mana (21)
1 Black Lotus
4 Dark Ritual
9 Fetch Lands
1 Island
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
4 Underground Sea

Tutor (4)
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
Sideboard (12)
2 Cut Down
1 Force of Negation
3 Leyline of the Void
1 Mindbreak Trap
1 Murktide Regent
3 Steel Sabotage
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

discoverN - 38th Place Differences

Main (2)
1 Daze
1 Sleight of Hand
Sideboard (3)
1 Leyline of the Void
1 Ray of Enfeeblement
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

etoustar - 58th Place Differences

Main (2)
1 Sleight of Hand
1 Watery Grave
Sideboard (3)
1 Murktide Regent
1 Ray of Enfeeblement
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Tsubasa_Cat - 19th Place Differences

Main (2)
1 Dress Down
1 Flusterstorm
Sideboard (3)
1 Dress Down
1 Murktide Regent
1 Snuff Out

Firetruck - 0-3 Differences

Main (2)
1 Dress Down
1 Flusterstorm
Sideboard (3)
1 Leyline of the Void
1 Murktide Regent
1 Snuff Out

Total Differences

L⁣ands/Mana (1)
1 Watery Grave

Counters (3)
1 Daze
2 Flusterstorm

Draw (2)
2 Sleight of Hand

Removal (2)
2 Dress Down
Anti-Graveyard (2)
2 Leyline of the Void

Creatures (3)
3 Murktide Regent

Removal (7)
1 Dress Down
2 Ray of Enfeeblement
2 Snuff Out
2 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Main Averages Side Averages
CoreCombo 6.0
Counter 10.75 Counter 2.0
Discard 1.0
Draw 16.5
LandsMana 21.25
Removal 0.5 Removal 4.75
Tutor 4.0
Creature 1.75
AntiArtifact 3.0
AntiGraveyard 3.5
Main Difference Side Difference
Counter +0.04
Creature -0.11
Discard +0.14 Discard -0.29
Draw -0.64
Lands/Mana +0.11 Lands/Mana -0.29
Removal +0.36 Removal +0.18
Anti-Graveyard +0.50

Thoughts

Normally I don’t include core cards in the images, but it is interesting that everyone was on a copy of Duress and Force of Negation.
Still, the results are not great. Is Doomsday bad right now, are not enough people playing it right now, or are people playing the wrong lists?

Energy Flux is doing work for people, but it’s not an easy card for Doomsday to cast – especially when Wasteland decks are where we want it.

Honestly, I should be jamming Doomsday leagues at the moment to see if I can find something, but I’m playing other decks to see if that can’t inspire some angle Doomsday can take. The following thoughts are in my mind:

I’ve been having reasonable success in paper where I don’t encounter Lurrus decks as much. Shops has been fine, and even dropping Leyline of the Void hasn’t hurt me too much against Bazaar decks. (The one I did lose to was because of, ironically, Urza’s Saga.)
I don’t have answers, I don’t have much data, and I don’t have hope Doomsday is going to get anything in the upcoming set. Maybe Modern Horizons 3 gives us something or simply puts the final nail in the coffin.
Or the meta shifts. Don’t be so negative.

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Best of luck to everyone playing this weekend!
Remember: Always Be Casting Doomsday.
And thanks! I love you.