Vintage Doomsday Deck List Analysis for 2024.03.17

Hot damn, people registered some Doomsday.

Saturday Showcase Challenge

Diem4x

discoverN

Terribad

ecobaronen

ElfKid

Gerschi

CrazyDiamond513

grinderA

SingPanMan

marceliiine

Dreddybajs

reiderrabbit

532at

Sunday Challenge

discoverN

Tsubasa_Cat

Preliminaries

CrazyDiamond513

revenantkioku

bennybo

reiderrabbit

League

Gerschi

discoverN

discoverN

Core and Differences

Main Core: 43 cards Side Core: 0 cards

Core

Core-Combo (6)
Doomsday
Thassa's Oracle

Counter (7)
Flusterstorm
Force of Will
Mental Misstep

Draw (9)
Ancestral Recall
Brainstorm
Gitaxian Probe
Gush
Ponder
Time Walk

L⁣ands/Mana (18)
Black Lotus
Dark Ritual
Fetch Lands
Island
Mox Jet
Mox Sapphire
Underground Sea

Tutor (3)
Demonic Consultation
Demonic Tutor
Vampiric Tutor
Sideboard (0)

Diem4x - 14th Place Differences

Main (17)
Dig Through Time
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Treasure Cruise
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Force of Negation
Leyline of the Void
Mindbreak Trap
Murktide Regent
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

discoverN - 20th Place Differences

Main (17)
Dig Through Time
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Treasure Cruise
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Duress
Force of Negation
Leyline of the Void
Mindbreak Trap
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Terribad - 28th Place Differences

Main (17)
Daze
Dig Through Time
Duress
Fatal Push
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Fatal Push
Force of Negation
Grafdigger's Cage
Island
Leyline of the Void
Murktide Regent
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
Steel Sabotage
Strip Mine
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

ecobaronen - 32nd Place Differences

Main (17)
Daze
Dig Through Time
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Treasure Cruise
Watery Grave
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Daze
Dress Down
Duress
Mindbreak Trap
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage

ElfKid - 39th Place Differences

Main (17)
Dig Through Time
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Treasure Cruise
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Force of Negation
Leyline of the Void
Mindbreak Trap
Murktide Regent
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Gerschi - 56th Place Differences

Main (18)
Bolas's Citadel
Dress Down
Mana Crypt
Manifold Key
Mox Emerald
Mox Pearl
Mox Ruby
Mystical Tutor
Pithing Needle
Sensei's Divining Top
Sol Ring
Strip Mine
The One Ring
Time Vault
Tinker
Tolarian Academy
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Annul
Cut Down
Fatal Push
Hullbreacher
Hurkyl's Recall
Leyline of the Void
Mindbreak Trap
Murktide Regent
Opposition Agent
Portal to Phyrexia
Soul Rend
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

CrazyDiamond513 - 70th Place Differences

Main (17)
Daze
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Duress
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Fatal Push
Force of Negation
Grafdigger's Cage
Mindbreak Trap
Murktide Regent
Null Rod
Pithing Needle
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
Yixlid Jailer

grinderA - 82nd Place Differences

Main (17)
Daze
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Fetch Lands
Lotus Petal
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Spell Pierce
Street Wraith
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Daze
Duress
Fatal Push
Force of Negation
Hurkyl's Recall
Island
Murktide Regent
Pithing Needle
Steel Sabotage

SingPanMan - 130th Place Differences

Main (17)
Daze
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Necropotence
Preordain
Spell Snare
Street Wraith
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Annul
Cut Down
Leyline of the Void
Mindbreak Trap
Murktide Regent
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

marceliiine - 146th Place Differences

Main (17)
Daze
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Lórien Revealed
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Spell Pierce
Street Wraith
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Fatal Push
Force of Negation
Hurkyl's Recall
Island
Murktide Regent
Pithing Needle
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
Thoughtseize

Dreddybajs - 161st Place Differences

Main (17)
Daze
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Duress
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Lotus Petal
Mishra's Bauble
Mystical Tutor
Preordain
Thoughtseize
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Defense Grid
Island
Lurrus of the Dream-Den
Nihil Spellbomb
Orcish Bowmasters
Soul Rend
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

reiderrabbit - 176th Place Differences

Main (17)
Daze
Defense Grid
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Lotus Petal
Mishra's Bauble
Mystical Tutor
Preordain
Thoughtseize
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Leyline of the Void
Lurrus of the Dream-Den
Nihil Spellbomb
Orcish Bowmasters
Soul Rend
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

532at - 181st Place Differences

Main (17)
Daze
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Force of Negation
Island
Leyline of the Void
Null Rod
Pithing Needle
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
Soul Rend
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

discoverN - 3rd Place Differences

Main (17)
Dig Through Time
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Treasure Cruise
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Duress
Force of Negation
Leyline of the Void
Mindbreak Trap
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Tsubasa_Cat - 29th Place Differences

Main (17)
Dig Through Time
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Treasure Cruise
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Dauthi Voidwalker
Force of Negation
Leyline of the Void
Mindbreak Trap
Murktide Regent
Opposition Agent
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

CrazyDiamond513 - 3-1 Differences

Main (17)
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Duress
Fetch Lands
Force of Negation
Lórien Revealed
Manifold Key
Mishra's Bauble
Mystical Tutor
Sensei's Divining Top
Time Vault
Urza's Saga
Sideboard (15)
Annul
Fatal Push
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Grafdigger's Cage
Lurrus of the Dream-Den
Nihil Spellbomb
Pithing Needle
Spreading Seas
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
Yixlid Jailer

revenantkioku - 3-1 Differences

Main (17)
Chain of Vapor
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Dauthi Voidwalker
Dress Down
Duress
Force of Negation
Grafdigger's Cage
Steel Sabotage
Surgical Extraction
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

bennybo - 2-2 Differences

Main (17)
Daze
Dig Through Time
Duress
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Dauthi Voidwalker
Force of Negation
Leyline of the Void
Mindbreak Trap
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

reiderrabbit - 3-1 Differences

Main (17)
Daze
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Duress
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Lotus Petal
Mishra's Bauble
Mystical Tutor
Preordain
Thoughtseize
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Defense Grid
Island
Lurrus of the Dream-Den
Nihil Spellbomb
Orcish Bowmasters
Soul Rend
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Gerschi - 5-0 Differences

Main (17)
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Duress
Fetch Lands
Force of Negation
Lórien Revealed
Manifold Key
Mishra's Bauble
Mystical Tutor
Pithing Needle
Sensei's Divining Top
Time Vault
Urza's Saga
Sideboard (15)
Annul
Cut Down
Fatal Push
Grafdigger's Cage
Hurkyl's Recall
Lurrus of the Dream-Den
Mindbreak Trap
Nihil Spellbomb
Pithing Needle
Spell Pierce
Spreading Seas
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
Yixlid Jailer

discoverN - 5-0 Differences

Main (17)
Dig Through Time
Dress Down
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Treasure Cruise
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Dauthi Voidwalker
Force of Negation
Leyline of the Void
Mindbreak Trap
Murktide Regent
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

discoverN - 5-0 Differences

Main (17)
Dig Through Time
Fetch Lands
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Mystical Tutor
Necropotence
Preordain
Street Wraith
Treasure Cruise
Undercity Sewers
Sideboard (15)
Cut Down
Force of Negation
Leyline of the Void
Mindbreak Trap
Murktide Regent
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Total Differences

L⁣ands/Mana (78)
40 Fetch Lands
Lotus Petal
Mana Crypt
Mox Emerald
Mox Pearl
Mox Ruby
Sol Ring
Tolarian Academy
19 Undercity Sewers
Urza's Saga
Watery Grave

Counters (52)
15 Daze
19 Flusterstorm
12 Force of Negation
Pithing Needle
Spell Pierce
Spell Snare

Draw (179)
21 Dig Through Time
Lórien Revealed
Mishra's Bauble
16 Necropotence
55 Preordain
Sensei's Divining Top
63 Street Wraith
The One Ring
Treasure Cruise

Discard (12)
Duress
Thoughtseize

Removal (24)
Chain of Vapor
21 Dress Down
Fatal Push
Strip Mine

Tutors (22)
21 Mystical Tutor
Tinker

Other (8)
Bolas's Citadel
Defense Grid
Manifold Key
Time Vault
Sideboard (0)

Anti-Graveyard (77)
Dauthi Voidwalker
Grafdigger's Cage
50 Leyline of the Void
Nihil Spellbomb
Pithing Needle
Surgical Extraction
Yixlid Jailer

Anti-Artifacts (52)
Hurkyl's Recall
Null Rod
45 Steel Sabotage

Discard (9)
Duress
Thoughtseize

Draw (0)

Creatures (37)
Hullbreacher
Lurrus of the Dream-Den
14 Murktide Regent
Opposition Agent
10 Orcish Bowmasters
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

Lands (6)
Island

Counters (51)
Annul
Daze
Flusterstorm
19 Force of Negation
23 Mindbreak Trap
Spell Pierce

Removal (96)
37 Cut Down
Dress Down
10 Fatal Push
Portal to Phyrexia
16 Snuff Out
Soul Rend
Spreading Seas
Strip Mine
20 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Other (2)
Defense Grid


Main Averages Side Averages
CoreCombo 6.0
Counter 9.27 Counter 2.32
Creature 1.91
Discard 0.55 Discard 0.41
Draw 17.14
LandsMana 21.5 LandsMana 0.27
Removal 1.09 Removal 4.36
Tutor 4.0
AntiArtifact 2.36
AntiGraveyard 0.09 AntiGraveyard 3.27
Other 0.36 Other 0.09
Main Difference Side Difference
Counter -0.53 Counter +0.12
Creature -0.40 Creature -0.09
Discard +0.35 Discard +0.01
Draw +2.14 Draw -0.20
Lands/Mana -0.70 Lands/Mana +0.07
Removal +0.09 Removal +0.16
Anti-Artifact -0.04
Anti-Graveyard -0.51 Anti-Graveyard +0.07
Other -0.44 Other -0.11

Thoughts

While Tinker Doomsday never really stuck around, Lurrus Doomsday is starting to get some traction. It makes sense. Urza's Saga is the best thing you can do in Vintage. Yeah, Wasteland exists, but it can never put you into a position to win the game. The interesting thing about the Tinker/Lurrus builds is that they are not that different. Both run VaultKey. It is whether or not you want TinkerCitadel or Lurrus recursion. The choice is clear, I believe. But I digest.
Undercity Sewers has been accepted by the masses. Some are hitting those situations where it hurts more than it helps and are swearing to never run it again. I have not experienced this. I've trimmed down to one, as I find my testing period is over and two is a little too much. But the one copy has done me wonders.

Going to the Sideboards, while most Lurrus players are choosing to not use Leyline of the Void, some non-Lurrus players are on that boat as well. I wouldn't call it not respecting Dredge, but rather approaching Dredge as the Combo matchup it is. Maybe you want to make them have that Force of Vigor. A fair argument.
Nothing particularly spicy other that Spreading Seas popping up in some Lurrus builds. It makes sense. Dauthi Voidwalker has not caught on, but it does enough work that I'm happy to have two in my sideboard, and I would not be surprised to see the numbers go up over the coming weeks.


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Best of luck to everyone playing this weekend!
Remember: Always Be Casting Doomsday.
And thanks! I love you.