Vintage Doomsday Deck List Analysis for 2024.02.11

While the challenge results are rough, Doomsday seems to be doing well in paper. Could it be The Human Element?

Saturday Challenge

Andifeated

Sunday Challenge

Munchlax446

Tsubasa_Cat

SingPanMan

League

Gerschi

Tiny Tensaku Cup

SingPanMan

Core and Differences

Main Core: 51 cards Side Core: 0 cards

Core

Core-Combo (6)
4 Doomsday
2 Thassa's Oracle

Counter (5)
4 Force of Will
1 Mental Misstep

Draw (16)
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Dig Through Time
1 Gitaxian Probe
1 Gush
1 Necropotence
1 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Street Wraith
1 Time Walk

L⁣ands/Mana (20)
1 Black Lotus
4 Dark Ritual
8 Fetch Lands
1 Island
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
4 Underground Sea

Tutor (4)
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor

Andifeated - 20th Place Differences

Main (9)
2 Daze
4 Flusterstorm
1 Sleight of Hand
1 Treasure Cruise
1 Watery Grave
Sideboard (15)
2 Cut Down
1 Daze
2 Duress
1 Island
2 Mindbreak Trap
3 Snuff Out
4 Steel Sabotage

Munchlax446 - 40th Place Differences

Main (9)
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Fetch Land
1 Merchant Scroll
1 Pact of Negation
1 Swamp
4 Thoughtseize
Sideboard (15)
2 Daze
2 Force of Negation
1 Hurkyl's Recall
4 Leyline of the Void
3 March of Swirling Mist
2 Pact of Negation
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Tsubasa_Cat - 41st Place Differences

Main (9)
1 Daze
1 Dress Down
1 Duress
1 Fetch Land
4 Flusterstorm
1 Force of Negation
Sideboard (15)
2 Cut Down
1 Force of Negation
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Mindbreak Trap
2 Murktide Regent
1 Snuff Out
3 Steel Sabotage
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

SingPanMan - 46th Place Differences

Main (9)
2 Daze
1 Dress Down
1 Duress
1 Fetch Land
3 Flusterstorm
1 Teferi's Response
Sideboard (15)
1 Annul
2 Cut Down
1 Force of Negation
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
2 Snuff Out
2 Steel Sabotage
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Gerschi - 5-0 Differences

Main (9)
1 Duress
1 Fetch Land
3 Flusterstorm
1 Repeal
1 Sleight of Hand
2 Spell Pierce
Sideboard (15)
1 Cut Down
1 Fatal Push
1 Force of Negation
1 Hullbreacher
3 Leyline of the Void
1 Mindbreak Trap
2 Murktide Regent
3 Steel Sabotage
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
1 Virtue's Ruin

SingPanMan - 2nd Differences

Main (9)
2 Daze
2 Dress Down
1 Fetch Land
2 Flusterstorm
2 Spell Pierce
Sideboard (15)
1 Annul
2 Fatal Push
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Mindbreak Trap
1 Murktide Regent
2 Snuff Out
2 Steel Sabotage
2 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Total Differences

L⁣ands/Mana (7)
5 Fetch Lands
1 Swamp
1 Watery Grave

Counters (29)
7 Daze
16 Flusterstorm
1 Force of Negation
1 Pact of Negation
4 Spell Pierce

Draw (3)
2 Sleight of Hand
1 Treasure Cruise

Discard (7)
3 Duress
4 Thoughtseize

Removal (6)
1 Chain of Vapor
4 Dress Down
1 Repeal

Tutors (1)
1 Merchant Scroll

Other (1)
1 Teferi's Response
Anti-Graveyard (19)
19 Leyline of the Void

Anti-Artifacts (15)
1 Hurkyl's Recall
14 Steel Sabotage

Discard (2)
2 Duress

Creatures (8)
1 Hullbreacher
5 Murktide Regent
2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

Lands (1)
1 Island

Counters (17)
2 Annul
3 Daze
5 Force of Negation
5 Mindbreak Trap
2 Pact of Negation

Removal (28)
7 Cut Down
3 Fatal Push
3 March of Swirling Mist
8 Snuff Out
6 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
1 Virtue's Ruin

Main Averages Side Averages
CoreCombo 6.0
Counter 9.83 Counter 2.83
Creature 1.33
Discard 1.17 Discard 0.33
Draw 16.5
LandsMana 21.17 LandsMana 0.17
Removal 1.0 Removal 4.67
Tutor 4.17
AntiArtifact 2.5
AntiGraveyard 3.17
Other 0.17
Main Difference Side Difference
Counter +0.33 Counter +0.23
Creature -0.17
Discard -0.33 Discard +0.03
Lands/Mana -0.23 Lands/Mana -0.03
Removal +0.77
Tutor -0.03
Anti-Graveyard -0.33
Other +0.17 Other -0.50

Thoughts

Teferi's Response is a message. I'll let you decide what the message is.

My feeling after the past few weeks is:

  1. I want to try 4 Thoughtseize.
  2. I want to try March of Swirling Mist.
    I don't expect great results, but it smells delicious.

It's a bummer that MKM has nothing for Doomsday. (Although the upcoming Clue Watery Grave does have a leg up on the other arts.) As Vintage (and Magic in general) goes more away from the stack and towards the board, perhaps a different angle of attack with Thassa's Oracle will arise.
But people are still putting up results. It's a matter of luck, skill, and luck.

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Best of luck to everyone playing this weekend!
Remember: Always Be Casting Doomsday.
And thanks! I love you.