Vintage Doomsday Deck List Analysis for 2024.01.28

How many Thoughtseizes does it take to get to the top 8 of a Vintage Challenge?

Saturday Challenge

Gn42

Sunday Challenge

Munchlax446

Tsubasa_Cat

Preliminaries

MackSmith

reiderrabbit

Cuikui

Core and Differences

Main Core: 50 cards Side Core: 3 cards

Core

Core-Combo (6)
Doomsday
Thassa's Oracle

Counter (5)
Force of Will
Mental Misstep

Draw (15)
Ancestral Recall
Brainstorm
Dig Through Time
Gitaxian Probe
Gush
Necropotence
Ponder
Preordain
Street Wraith
Time Walk

L⁣ands/Mana (20)
Black Lotus
Dark Ritual
Fetch Lands
Island
Mox Jet
Mox Sapphire
Underground Sea

Tutor (4)
Demonic Consultation
Demonic Tutor
Mystical Tutor
Vampiric Tutor
Sideboard (3)
Leyline of the Void

Gn42 (21st Place) Differences

Main (10)
Daze
Defense Grid
Dress Down
Duress
Flusterstorm
Lotus Petal
Watery Grave
Sideboard (12)
Cut Down
Duress
Leyline of the Void
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
Soul Rend
Steel Sabotage
Swamp
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Munchlax446 - 4th Place Differences

Main (10)
Chain of Vapor
Fetch Land
Imperial Seal
Pact of Negation
Street Wraith
Swamp
Thoughtseize
Sideboard (12)
Force of Negation
Leyline of the Void
Pact of Negation
Virtue's Ruin

Tsubasa_Cat - 29th Place Differences

Main (10)
Daze
Dress Down
Duress
Fetch Land
Flusterstorm
Mishra's Bauble
Sleight of Hand
Street Wraith
Sideboard (12)
Cut Down
Defense Grid
Force of Negation
Mindbreak Trap
Murktide Regent
Ray of Enfeeblement
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

MackSmith (3-1) Differences

Main (10)
Daze
Duress
Fatal Push
Flusterstorm
Lórien Revealed
Sleight of Hand
Street Wraith
Sideboard (12)
Cut Down
Dress Down
Duress
Fatal Push
Force of Negation
Leyline of the Void
Murktide Regent
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

reiderrabbit (3-1) Differences

Main (10)
Daze
Defense Grid
Dress Down
Duress
Flusterstorm
Lotus Petal
Watery Grave
Sideboard (12)
Cut Down
Duress
Leyline of the Void
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
Soul Rend
Steel Sabotage
Swamp
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Cuikui (1-3) Differences

Main (10)
Daze
Fetch Land
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Sleight of Hand
Street Wraith
Sideboard (12)
Cut Down
Duress
Leyline of the Void
Mindbreak Trap
Murktide Regent
Ray of Enfeeblement
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Total Differences

L⁣ands/Mana (8)
Fetch Lands
Lotus Petal
Swamp
Watery Grave

Counters (25)
Daze
15 Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Pact of Negation

Draw (9)
Lórien Revealed
Mishra's Bauble
Sleight of Hand
Street Wraith

Discard (8)
Duress
Thoughtseize

Removal (7)
Chain of Vapor
Dress Down
Fatal Push

Tutors (1)
Imperial Seal

Other (2)
Defense Grid
Sideboard (0)

Anti-Graveyard (5)
Leyline of the Void

Anti-Artifacts (16)
16 Steel Sabotage

Discard (4)
Duress

Creatures (6)
Murktide Regent
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

Lands (2)
Swamp

Counters (13)
Force of Negation
Mindbreak Trap
Pact of Negation

Removal (25)
Cut Down
Dress Down
Fatal Push
Ray of Enfeeblement
Soul Rend
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
Virtue's Ruin

Other (1)
Defense Grid

Main Averages Side Averages
CoreCombo 6.0
Counter 9.17 Counter 2.17
Discard 1.33 Discard 0.67
Draw 16.5
LandsMana 21.33 LandsMana 0.33
Removal 1.17 Removal 4.17
Tutor 4.17
AntiArtifact 2.67
AntiGraveyard 3.83
Creature 1.0
Other 0.33 Other 0.17
Main Difference Side Difference
Counter -0.96 Counter +0.67
Creature -1.00
Discard +0.21 Discard +0.42
Draw -0.38
Lands/Mana +0.21 Lands/Mana +0.21
Removal +0.54 Removal -0.08
Tutor +0.17
Anti-Artifact -0.21
Anti-Graveyard -0.17
Other +0.21 Other +0.17

Thoughts

Defense Grid is catching on – as it should. It is a nice play when you're less concerned about your opponent's turn than your own. I'm keeping my copy in the sideboard for now.
We have to talk about Munchlax446! Look at that sideboard. Fuck you, 4-4-4-3. I dare say this is someone who was hurt by MWI. A playset of Thoughtseize sure is a message, and I'm going to have to give this list a spin. Very curious how Imperial Seal works out. Seems slow in the current meta, but Opposition Agent has all but disappeared, so guaranteeing your next draw could be where it's at.


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Best of luck to everyone playing this weekend!
Remember: Always Be Casting Doomsday.
And thanks! I love you.