Vintage Doomsday Deck List Analysis for 2024.01.28

How many Thoughtseizes does it take to get to the top 8 of a Vintage Challenge?

Saturday Challenge

Gn42

Sunday Challenge

Munchlax446

Tsubasa_Cat

Preliminaries

MackSmith

reiderrabbit

Cuikui

Core and Differences

Main Core: 50 cards Side Core: 3 cards

Core

Core-Combo (6)
4 Doomsday
2 Thassa’s Oracle

Counter (5)
4 Force of Will
1 Mental Misstep

Draw (15)
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Dig Through Time
1 Gitaxian Probe
1 Gush
1 Necropotence
1 Ponder
4 Preordain
3 Street Wraith
1 Time Walk

L⁣ands/Mana (20)
1 Black Lotus
4 Dark Ritual
8 Fetch Lands
1 Island
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
4 Underground Sea

Tutor (4)
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor
Sideboard (3)
3 Leyline of the Void

Gn42 (21st Place) Differences

Main (10)
1 Daze
1 Defense Grid
2 Dress Down
1 Duress
3 Flusterstorm
1 Lotus Petal
1 Watery Grave
Sideboard (12)
2 Cut Down
1 Duress
1 Leyline of the Void
1 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
1 Soul Rend
4 Steel Sabotage
1 Swamp
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Munchlax446 - 4th Place Differences

Main (10)
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Fetch Land
1 Imperial Seal
1 Pact of Negation
1 Street Wraith
1 Swamp
4 Thoughtseize
Sideboard (12)
4 Force of Negation
1 Leyline of the Void
3 Pact of Negation
4 Virtue’s Ruin

Tsubasa_Cat - 29th Place Differences

Main (10)
1 Daze
1 Dress Down
1 Duress
1 Fetch Land
3 Flusterstorm
1 Mishra’s Bauble
1 Sleight of Hand
1 Street Wraith
Sideboard (12)
2 Cut Down
1 Defense Grid
2 Force of Negation
1 Mindbreak Trap
1 Murktide Regent
1 Ray of Enfeeblement
3 Steel Sabotage
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

MackSmith (3-1) Differences

Main (10)
2 Daze
1 Duress
1 Fatal Push
3 Flusterstorm
1 Lórien Revealed
1 Sleight of Hand
1 Street Wraith
Sideboard (12)
1 Cut Down
1 Dress Down
1 Duress
1 Fatal Push
2 Force of Negation
1 Leyline of the Void
1 Murktide Regent
1 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
2 Steel Sabotage
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

reiderrabbit (3-1) Differences

Main (10)
1 Daze
1 Defense Grid
2 Dress Down
1 Duress
3 Flusterstorm
1 Lotus Petal
1 Watery Grave
Sideboard (12)
2 Cut Down
1 Duress
1 Leyline of the Void
1 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
1 Soul Rend
4 Steel Sabotage
1 Swamp
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Cuikui (1-3) Differences

Main (10)
2 Daze
1 Fetch Land
3 Flusterstorm
2 Force of Negation
1 Sleight of Hand
1 Street Wraith
Sideboard (12)
2 Cut Down
1 Duress
1 Leyline of the Void
1 Mindbreak Trap
1 Murktide Regent
1 Ray of Enfeeblement
3 Steel Sabotage
2 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Total Differences

L⁣ands/Mana (8)
3 Fetch Lands
2 Lotus Petal
1 Swamp
2 Watery Grave

Counters (25)
7 Daze
15 Flusterstorm
2 Force of Negation
1 Pact of Negation

Draw (9)
1 Lórien Revealed
1 Mishra’s Bauble
3 Sleight of Hand
4 Street Wraith

Discard (8)
4 Duress
4 Thoughtseize

Removal (7)
1 Chain of Vapor
5 Dress Down
1 Fatal Push

Tutors (1)
1 Imperial Seal

Other (2)
2 Defense Grid
Anti-Graveyard (5)
5 Leyline of the Void

Anti-Artifacts (16)
16 Steel Sabotage

Discard (4)
4 Duress

Creatures (6)
3 Murktide Regent
3 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

Lands (2)
2 Swamp

Counters (13)
8 Force of Negation
2 Mindbreak Trap
3 Pact of Negation

Removal (25)
9 Cut Down
1 Dress Down
1 Fatal Push
2 Ray of Enfeeblement
2 Soul Rend
6 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
4 Virtue’s Ruin

Other (1)
1 Defense Grid

Main Averages Side Averages
CoreCombo 6.0
Counter 9.17 Counter 2.17
Discard 1.33 Discard 0.67
Draw 16.5
LandsMana 21.33 LandsMana 0.33
Removal 1.17 Removal 4.17
Tutor 4.17
AntiArtifact 2.67
AntiGraveyard 3.83
Creature 1.0
Other 0.33 Other 0.17
Main Difference Side Difference
Counter -0.96 Counter +0.67
Creature -1.00
Discard +0.21 Discard +0.42
Draw -0.38
Lands/Mana +0.21 Lands/Mana +0.21
Removal +0.54 Removal -0.08
Tutor +0.17
Anti-Artifact -0.21
Anti-Graveyard -0.17
Other +0.21 Other +0.17

Thoughts

Defense Grid is catching on – as it should. It is a nice play when you’re less concerned about your opponent’s turn than your own. I’m keeping my copy in the sideboard for now.
We have to talk about Munchlax446! Look at that sideboard. Fuck you, 4-4-4-3. I dare say this is someone who was hurt by MWI. A playset of Thoughtseize sure is a message, and I’m going to have to give this list a spin. Very curious how Imperial Seal works out. Seems slow in the current meta, but Opposition Agent has all but disappeared, so guaranteeing your next draw could be where it’s at.


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Best of luck to everyone playing this weekend!
Remember: Always Be Casting Doomsday.
And thanks! I love you.