Vintage Doomsday Deck List Analysis for 2023.07.23
- Eric
- 0
- on Jul 25, 2023
The Tinker Doomsday Revolution is... not quite here yet. Also: Now that people won't have All Access to The One Ring, what changes?
Saturday Challenge
Sunday Challenge
Core and Differences
Core
| Core-Combo (6) 4 Doomsday 2 Thassa's Oracle Counter (7) 2 Flusterstorm 4 Force of Will 1 Mental Misstep Draw (9) 1 Ancestral Recall 1 Brainstorm 1 Gitaxian Probe 1 Gush 1 Necropotence 1 Ponder 2 Preordain 1 Time Walk Lands/Mana (20) 1 Black Lotus 4 Dark Ritual 8 Fetch Lands 1 Island 1 Mox Jet 1 Mox Sapphire 4 Underground Sea Tutor (4) 1 Demonic Consultation 1 Demonic Tutor 1 Mystical Tutor 1 Vampiric Tutor | Sideboard (4) 4 Leyline of the Void |
discoverN - 7th Place Differences
IamActuallyLvL1 - 8th Place Differences
Tsubasa_Cat - 20th Place Differences
| Main (14) 1 Daze 1 Dig Through Time 1 Duress 1 Fetch Land 1 Flusterstorm 1 Force of Negation 1 Mindbreak Trap 1 Portent 2 Preordain 4 Street Wraith | Sideboard (11) 2 Cut Down 1 Force of Negation 1 Mindbreak Trap 1 Murktide Regent 1 Opposition Agent 1 Snuff Out 3 Steel Sabotage 1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale |
Kuvalda - 29th Place Differences
| Main (14) 3 Daze 1 Dig Through Time 1 Flusterstorm 1 Force of Negation 2 Preordain 4 Street Wraith 1 Treasure Cruise 1 Watery Grave | Sideboard (11) 4 Fatal Push 1 Force of Negation 2 Null Rod 4 Steel Sabotage |
Kuvalda - 5th Place Differences
| Main (14) 2 Daze 1 Dig Through Time 1 Duress 1 Flusterstorm 1 Force of Negation 2 Preordain 4 Street Wraith 1 Treasure Cruise 1 Watery Grave | Sideboard (11) 4 Fatal Push 2 Mindbreak Trap 3 Steel Sabotage 2 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale |
CrazyDiamond513 - 28th Place Differences
| Main (14) 1 Chain of Vapor 1 Daze 1 Dig Through Time 1 Duress 1 Fetch Land 1 Flusterstorm 1 Force of Negation 1 Portent 2 Preordain 4 Street Wraith | Sideboard (11) 1 Force of Negation 2 Orcish Bowmasters 1 Spell Pierce 3 Steel Sabotage 3 Suspend 1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale |
discoverN - 32nd Place Differences
Total Differences
| Lands/Mana (11) 4 Fetch Lands 1 Lotus Petal 1 Mana Crypt 1 Mox Emerald 1 Mox Pearl 1 Mox Ruby 2 Watery Grave Counters (23) 8 Daze 6 Flusterstorm 6 Force of Negation 3 Mindbreak Trap Draw (53) 6 Dig Through Time 2 Mishra's Bauble 4 Portent 12 Preordain 3 Sensei's Divining Top 24 Street Wraith 2 Treasure Cruise Discard (5) 5 Duress Removal (2) 1 Chain of Vapor 1 Repeal Tutors (2) 1 Merchant Scroll 1 Tinker Other (2) 1 Bolas's Citadel 1 Yawgmoth's Will | Sideboard (0) Anti-Graveyard (2) 2 Hurkyl's Recall Anti-Artifacts (21) 2 Null Rod 19 Steel Sabotage Creatures (8) 1 Murktide Regent 2 Opposition Agent 4 Orcish Bowmasters 1 Sphinx of the Steel Wind Counters (14) 7 Force of Negation 6 Mindbreak Trap 1 Spell Pierce Removal (32) 6 Cut Down 9 Fatal Push 4 Snuff Out 3 Suspend 9 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale 1 Virtue's Ruin |
Main Core: 46 cards Side Core: 4 cards
| Main | Averages | Side | Averages |
|---|---|---|---|
| CoreCombo | 6.0 | AntiArtifact | 3.29 |
| Counter | 10.29 | AntiGraveyard | 4.0 |
| Discard | 0.71 | Counter | 2.0 |
| Draw | 16.57 | Creature | 1.14 |
| LandsMana | 21.57 | Removal | 4.57 |
| Removal | 0.29 | ||
| Tutor | 4.29 | ||
| Other | 0.29 |
| Main | Difference | Side | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Counters | +0.19 | Anti-Artifact | +0.39 |
| Creature | -0.20 | Anti-Graveyard | +0.80 |
| Discard | +0.11 | Counter | -0.30 |
| Draw | -0.73 | Creature | +0.04 |
| Lands/Mana | -0.13 | Discard | -0.30 |
| Removal | +0.29 | Lands/Mana | -0.30 |
| Tutor | -3.71 | Removal | -4.90 |
| Other | +4.19 | Tutor | +4.57 |
Thoughts
I expected more Tinker Doomsday lists to show up. Doomsday had a bad (43%) win rate this weekend, but there's a bit of a problem:
Supply of The One Ring.
With All Access having ended, the ability to easily slide four copies of The One Ring is now gone. Many players likely have their playset, but the card is still $100 on from many bots. As of this writing I can add four to rent in from Mana Traders, but it splits the versions, which is not something I see often. How about another weekend of sealed events, Wizards?
Supply might become an issue as Blue One Ring decks are starting to take off. These seem to move from Jewel Shoppes into more of a mix of Jewel and PO – featuring the namesake of neither. Powerful Blue Spells and The One Ring. A match made in Mordor.
So where does that leave Doomsday? These decks tend to run three or four copies of Hullbreacher, which we pack no main way to deal with a resolved one. Some piles can be built around it – namely with Time Walk and either a fetch land or Thassa's Oracle in hand – but it's not easy. Seeing a main copy of Cut Down or Fatal Push in some of next week's lists won't be surprising. discoverN may just continue to do what discoverN does best: Play solid Magic with Doomsday.
So why isn't Tinker Doomsday taking off? There were a few 0-X drops in Saturday's challenge, so sadly I'm unsure of the truth. One seemingly played Tinker. While Jewel Shoppes was never a particularly hard matchup for Doomsday, it could still pull quick wins out of nowhere. Add in some Hullbreachers and you have a recipe for a tough time.
If people have a hard time getting their hands on copies of The One Ring, my gut feeling is this weekend will be lots of Mono-White Initiative, Jewel Shoppes, and a smattering of CounterVine. Pack an Opposition Agent for the mirror – I expect a good number of those.
I'm going through my quarterly Necropotence crisis. In paper this weekend I had a number of games where landing it simply cost me the game. At least The One Ring - which I also played a copy of – gave me a turn of safety against CounterVine which I was able to then turn around into a win. Do be careful with the power of the Ring, however. I will not save you from Deathrite Shaman.
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Best of luck to everyone playing this weekend!
Remember: Always Be Casting Doomsday.
And thanks! I love you.