Vintage Doomsday Deck List Analysis for 2023.06.18

While the mains are very similar, the sideboards have some wild differences this week.

Saturday Challenge

ecobaronen - 17th Place

Tsubasa_Cat - 26th Place

Sunday Challenge

ecobaronen - 12th Place

Tsubasa_Cat - 14th Place

Preliminaries

CrazyDiamond513 - 3-1

MentalMisstep - 3-1

Core and Differences

Core

Core-Combo (6)
4 Doomsday
2 Thassa's Oracle

Counter (9)
1 Daze
3 Flusterstorm
4 Force of Will
1 Mental Misstep

Draw (16)
1 Ancestral Recall
1 Brainstorm
1 Dig Through Time
1 Gitaxian Probe
1 Gush
1 Necropotence
1 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Street Wraith
1 Time Walk
Lands/Mana (20)
1 Black Lotus
4 Dark Ritual
8 Fetch Lands
1 Island
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Sapphire
4 Underground Sea

Tutor (4)
1 Demonic Consultation
1 Demonic Tutor
1 Mystical Tutor
1 Vampiric Tutor

Sideboard (2)
1 Force of Negation
1 Steel Sabotage

ecobaronen - 17th Place Differences

Main (5)
1 Flusterstorm
1 Force of Negation
1 Sleight of Hand
1 Treasure Cruise
1 Watery Grave
Sideboard (13)
1 Daze
2 Duress
2 Fatal Push
1 Island
2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
2 Snuff Out
3 Steel Sabotage

Tsubasa_Cat - 26th Place Differences

Main (5)
1 Duress
1 Fetch Land
1 Force of Negation
1 Mishra's Bauble
1 Portent
Sideboard (13)
1 Cut Down
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Mindbreak Trap
1 Murktide Regent
1 Ray of Enfeeblement
1 Snuff Out
2 Steel Sabotage
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

ecobaronen - 12th Place Differences

Main (5)
1 Flusterstorm
1 Force of Negation
1 Sleight of Hand
1 Treasure Cruise
1 Watery Grave
Sideboard (13)
2 Daze
2 Duress
2 Fatal Push
1 Island
1 Mystical Dispute
2 Snuff Out
3 Steel Sabotage

Tsubasa_Cat - 14th Place Differences

Main (5)
1 Duress
1 Fetch Land
1 Force of Negation
1 Mishra's Bauble
1 Portent
Sideboard (13)
2 Cut Down
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Mindbreak Trap
1 Murktide Regent
1 Ray of Enfeeblement
2 Steel Sabotage
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

CrazyDiamond513 - 3-1 Differences

Main (5)
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Daze
1 Fetch Land
1 Force of Negation
1 Treasure Cruise
Sideboard (13)
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Island
2 Pithing Needle
2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
2 Surgical Extraction
3 Suspend
2 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

MentalMisstep - 3-1 Differences

Main (5)
1 Daze
1 Fatal Push
1 Fetch Land
1 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
1 Thoughtseize
Sideboard (13)
1 Cut Down
1 Duress
1 Fatal Push
1 Gaea's Blessing
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Mindbreak Trap
1 Opposition Agent
1 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
1 Steel Sabotage
1 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Total Differences

L⁣ands/Mana (6)
4 Fetch Lands
2 Watery Grave

Counters (9)
2 Daze
2 Flusterstorm
5 Force of Negation

Draw (9)
2 Mishra's Bauble
2 Portent
2 Sleight of Hand
3 Treasure Cruise

Discard (3)
2 Duress
1 Thoughtseize

Creatures (1)
1 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

Removal (2)
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Fatal Push
Anti-Graveyard (16)
12 Leyline of the Void
2 Pithing Needle
2 Surgical Extraction

Anti-Artifacts (12)
1 Hurkyl's Recall
11 Steel Sabotage

Discard (5)
5 Duress

Creatures (8)
2 Murktide Regent
1 Opposition Agent
5 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

Lands (3)
3 Island

Counters (9)
3 Daze
5 Mindbreak Trap
1 Mystical Dispute

Removal (24)
4 Cut Down
5 Fatal Push
2 Ray of Enfeeblement
5 Snuff Out
3 Suspend
5 The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Other (1)
1 Gaea's Blessing

Thoughts

Main Core: 55 cards Side Core: 2 cards

Seeing little tweaks being tested out in Leagues and Preliminaries is interesting, but ultimately for a six round tournament, the staples go far.

Averages

Main Averages Side Averages
CoreCombo 6.0 AntiArtifact 3.0
Counter 10.5 AntiGraveyard 2.67
Creature 0.17 Counter 2.5
Discard 0.5 Creature 1.33
Draw 17.5 Discard 0.83
LandsMana 21.0 LandsMana 0.5
Tutor 4.0 Removal 4.0
Removal 0.33 Other 0.17

Differences

Main Difference Side Difference
Creature +0.05 Anti-Artifact -0.13
Discard -0.25 Anti-Graveyard -1.33
Draw +0.25 Counter +0.13
Removal -0.05 Creature +0.83
Discard +0.71
LandsMana +0.50
Removal -0.88
Other +0.17

The dip in Discard is a bit interesting, but mostly because it went to Creatures and Draw instead of Counters like I would expect.
The Counters in the side went up, along with the Discard, so it's a bit of shuffling between the Main and Sideboard. Well, for the non Challenge lists.

If I went back to the time right before Cut Down released, I bet we'd see a similar stabilization. Orcish Bowmasters is likely to make a splash in Vintage, and we'll see how decks look next week. I'm expecting some shakeups, and maybe even fewer lists as Doomsday players figure out how to handle this new threat.


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Best of luck to everyone playing this weekend!
Remember: Always Be Casting Doomsday.
And thanks! I love you.