Vintage Doomsday Deck List Analysis for 2023.06.11

With four decks placing in Saturday's Challenge, I expected a lot more than the eight lists we got this week. Still, a solid showing and some interesting choices.

Saturday Challenge

ecobaronen - 1st Place

discoverN - 3rd Place

CrazyDiamond513 - 8th Place

keeline - 29th Place

Sunday Challenge

discoverN - 12th Place

Preliminaries

CrazyDiamond513 - 3-1

League

keeline - 5-0

CrazyDiamond513 - 5-0

Core and Differences

Core

Core Combo (6)
Doomsday
Thassa's Oracle

Counters (10)
Daze
Flusterstorm
Force of Negation
Force of Will
Mental Misstep

Draw (16)
Ancestral Recall
Brainstorm
Dig Through Time
Gitaxian Probe
Gush
Necropotence
Ponder
Preordain
Street Wraith
Time Walk
Lands/Mana (20)
Black Lotus
Dark Ritual
Fetch Lands
Island
Mox Jet
Mox Sapphire
Underground Sea

Tutor (4)
Demonic Consultation
Demonic Tutor
Mystical Tutor
Vampiric Tutor

Sideboard (7)
Force of Negation
Leyline of the Void
Steel Sabotage

ecobaronen - 1st Place Differences

Main (4)
Flusterstorm
Sleight of Hand
Treasure Cruise
Watery Grave
Sideboard (8)
Fatal Push
Null Rod
Steel Sabotage

discoverN - 3rd Place Differences

Main (4)
Duress
Fetch Land
Mishra's Bauble
Portent
Sideboard (8)
Cut Down
Mindbreak Trap
Ray of Enfeeblement
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

CrazyDiamond513 - 8th Place Differences

Main (4)
Chain of Vapor
Daze
Duress
Watery Grave
Sideboard (8)
Cut Down
Mindbreak Trap
Ray of Enfeeblement
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
Subtlety
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

keeline - 29th Place Differences

Main (4)
Duress
Fetch Land
Mishra's Bauble
Portent
Sideboard (8)
Cut Down
Mindbreak Trap
Ray of Enfeeblement
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

discoverN - 12th Place Differences

Main (4)
Duress
Fetch Land
Mishra's Bauble
Portent
Sideboard (8)
Cut Down
Mindbreak Trap
Ray of Enfeeblement
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

CrazyDiamond513 - 3-1 Differences

Main (4)
Chain of Vapor
Daze
Monastery Mentor
Tundra
Sideboard (8)
Cut Down
Duress
Mindbreak Trap
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
Subtlety
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

keeline - 5-0 Differences

Main (4)
Duress
Fetch Land
Mishra's Bauble
Portent
Sideboard (8)
Cut Down
Mindbreak Trap
Ray of Enfeeblement
Snuff Out
Steel Sabotage
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

CrazyDiamond513 - 5-0 Differences

Main (4)
Chain of Vapor
Daze
Duress
Watery Grave
Sideboard (8)
Cut Down
Mindbreak Trap
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse
Snuff Out
Subtlety
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Total Differences

L⁣ands/Mana (8)
Fetch Lands
Tundra
Watery Grave

Counters (4)
Daze
Flusterstorm

Draw (10)
Mishra's Bauble
Portent
Sleight of Hand
Treasure Cruise

Discard (6)
Duress

Creatures (1)
Monastery Mentor

Removal (3)
Chain of Vapor
Sideboard (0)

Anti-Artifacts (2)
Null Rod

Discard (1)
Duress

Creatures (4)
Sheoldred, the Apocalypse.

Counters (18)
11 Mindbreak Trap
Steel Sabotage

Removal (39)
11 Cut Down
Fatal Push
Ray of Enfeeblement
Snuff Out
Subtlety
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

Thoughts

Main Core: 56 cards Side Core: 7 cards

CrazyDiamond513 sure likes Chain of Vapor. ecobaronen did well with what looks to be what the deck was around last year, only with a sideboard more focused on the current meta. discoverN's list is very often copied.


The split of Cut Down, Ray of Enfeeblement, and Snuff Out (!!) was common this week, but ecobaronen went simple with four Fatal Push. You'll never have one when you want another in that case, but having to turn on Revolt worries me.

Averages

Main Averages Side Averages
CoreCombo 6.0 AntiArtifact 3.125
Counter 10.5 AntiGraveyard 4.0
Creature 0.125 Counter 2.375
Discard 0.75 Creature 0.5
Draw 17.25 Discard 0.125
LandsMana 21.0 Removal 4.875
Removal 0.375
Tutor 4.0

Differences From Last Week

Main Difference Side Difference
Counters +0.21 Anti-Artifact +0.13
Creatures -0.02 Counters -0.06
Discard -0.11 Creatures -0.36
Draw -0.32 Discard +0.13
Removal +0.24 Draw ±0
Removal +0.17

The trend towards Removal happens, and like a broken record, it is because Creatures are so good these days.

Looking at these sideboards I worry about two decks: ControlVine and Oath. ControlVine has always been hard for Doomsday since it has a clock and plenty of Counters. I don't think we have many tools to deal with it any better than we currently do. Oath is interesting, and always has been an interesting matchup – but now it is because of all the changes coming to it. Atraxa, Grand Unifier might not be the reason some decks are playing Urza's Saga, Tinker, Show and Tell and more, but it feels like I might see anything out of Oath decks these days.


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Best of luck to everyone playing this weekend!
Remember: Always Be Casting Doomsday.
And thanks! I love you.